The effects of shelter-in-place on viral respiratory infections

Our lead epidemiologist, Dr. Sam Oh, recently shared a Washington Post article with the team. The article titled “Coronavirus lockdowns have nullified almost all other common viruses. But scientists say a rebound is coming." reported that the number of respiratory infections has dropped significantly as a result of the COVID-19 lockdowns. However, epidemiologists warn that as social distancing measures are relaxed, the rebound rate of these viruses "could be terrifyingly large." Our own Dr. Sam Oh comments,

One concern is that there may be an uptick in cases of these viruses once we return to "normal." With everyone sheltering in place, few will have developed immunity to those viruses.

- Sam Oh, PhD, MPH

 
Graphical representation of the prevailing viruses over the last 2 years, 2019 in grey, 2020 in red. The data come from diagnostic tests from over 2,500 U.S. health-care providers.Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/covid-shutdo…

Graphic representation of the predominant viruses in the last 2 years, 2019 in grey, 2020 in red. The data comes from diagnostic tests of more than 2,500 healthcare providers in the US.

Source:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/covid-shutdowns-viruses/

 

In PRIMERO, we have observed a significantly lower rate of diagnosed lower respiratory tract infections in our child participants compared to what has been seen historically in Puerto Rico. We believe this is a consequence of the precautionary measures that have been implemented in Puerto Rico to reduce the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic virus. However, we are still seeing a number of patients with significant lower respiratory symptoms, including wheezing, which has prompted face-to-face medical assessment visits with our staff. PRIMERO co-PI Dr. Max Seibold comments,

We are concerned that the lack of exposure to respiratory viruses due to pandemic precautions is resulting in a novel, non-viral pathogen-triggered presentation of airway dysfunction in early life, which these infants embody.

-Max Seibold, PhD

The PRIMERO team is preparing for an uptick in viral infections as vaccines begin to roll out and shelter-in-place mandates are relaxed. We are also in the process of studying children who present with significant lower respiratory tract symptoms but do not meet the criteria for diagnosis.